Central Bank pre-releases signed articles from Quarterly Bulletin 4 2016

The Central Bank has pre-released three signed articles from the forthcoming Quarterly Bulletin 4 of 2016.

Rental Markets, Savings and the Accumulation of Mortgage Deposits

The ability of households to accumulate mortgage deposits has been the subject of significant public debate in recent years, with rental and house purchase prices rising.  This article examines:

• The required down-payment for a first time buyer purchase of a three-bedroom property
• The number of years of saving required to purchase a three-bedroom house in Dublin (2.5 to four years), other urban areas (1 to 1.5 years), and non-Dublin, non-urban areas (below one year)

The Central Bank has published a short discussion on the Central Bank’s YouTube Channel:

Fergal McCann, Senior Economist discusses the time to save for mortgage deposits

New Data Collection on Special Purpose Vehicles in Ireland: Initial Findings and Measuring Shadow Banking

The non-bank financial sector has attracted increased global attention following the financial crisis of 2007-2008, with Ireland a significant location for Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs).  This article explores a new database of SPVs collected by the Central Bank:

• The database examines 822 SPVs with aggregate assets of €324 billion in Q4 2015.
• The analysis of the database shows a €172 billion reduction in the measure of the size of Irish shadow banking activities, arising from new information on consolidation and linkages.

Option Implied Probability Density Functions: Methodology and Use in Understanding Investor Sentiment

In recent years there has been lots of research into the extraction of information from the options market. This article:

• Demonstrates the effectiveness of the development of an option implied probability density functions approach.
• Outlines examples of applying this approach, including options written on Brent Crude oil and of the market’s expectation of the EUR/USD exchange rate.

Note

The views expressed in these articles are not necessarily those held by the Central Bank of Ireland.