Quarterly Bulletin No.4 2019

Read our latest assessment of the Irish and euro area economies in our latest Quarterly Bulletin.

Quarterly Bulletin was published on 11 October 2019.

Quarterly Bulletin - Q4 2019 | pdf 2799 KB Quarterly Bulletin No.4 2019

Read the Forecast Summary Table.

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The Irish economy continued to grow at a strong pace in the first half of 2019, despite rising uncertainty about the economic outlook and a less favourable external economic environment. While the underlying outlook for growth in the economy remains positive, there are significant domestic and external risks and uncertainties which threaten that outlook. At present, the main uncertainty relates to Brexit and the path ahead for the economy in coming years is linked to the future path of the Brexit process. If a disorderly, no deal Brexit can be avoided, it is projected that underlying economic activity will grow at a relatively solid pace in coming years, though with some moderation in growth in prospect. In a no-deal scenario, however, significant disruption and the negative shock to economic activity would adversely affect output and employment and the path ahead for the next few years would be very different.

Read this chapter in full: Irish Economy.

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This chapter presents a summary of the latest financial trends in Ireland. The Financial Statistics Summary Table and accompanying graphs provide key insights for understanding important trends, utilising the latest data for the household sector, small and medium sized enterprises, the financial sector and the public finances. Links to the relevant source data are provided below each chart.

Read the chapter: Overview of Financial developments in the Irish Economy.

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The Central Bank's Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) is a statistical measure of economic activity used to help provide a timely assessment of the current state of the economy. The combination of high-frequency data and a mix of hard and soft data allows the indicator to identify potential turning points in the economy. This Box presents the latest update of the BCI for the period up to August 2019.

Read in full: Business Cycle Indicator – An Update

The outlook for global economic activity continued to worsen over the last months. Escalating trade tensions increasingly weigh on investment and confidence, adding to policy uncertainty and aggravating risks in financial markets.

Read in full: The International Economic Outlook

This box analyses two of primary channels through which short term trade disruption may arise: logistical delays, and the imposition of sanitary and phyto-sanitary checks.

Read in full: Short-term disruption to trade infrastructure in a no-deal Brexit

Irish consumers have typically experienced relatively high grocery prices over time. This is likely the result of a number of structural features of Ireland and its groceries market. In addition to short-term inflationary effects, a hard Brexit could exacerbate a number of these structural issues with potentially adverse consequences for consumers.

Read in full: Grocery Prices in Ireland after Brexit

This box examines the sectoral export and employment exposures facing the Irish economy in light of the risks posed by a no-deal Brexit, and the threat of heightened trade tensions between the EU and the US. The analysis highlights the critical importance of the US for the pharmaceuticals sector, while the UK is a key market for services and agricultural exports.

Read in full: Sectoral Export and Employment Exposures to External Risks

While new bank lending to certain sectors continues to grow, credit developments remain modest. Households continue to increase deposits, suggesting elevated uncertainty could be leading to precautionary savings alongside rising incomes. Deposit growth, however, is in line with the broader euro area trend.

Read in full: Credit Developments in the Irish Economy