Quarterly Bulletin No.4 2022

Read the full Comment for Quarterly Bulletin No.4 2022.

Léigh tráchtaireacht ar an Timpeallacht Gheilleagrach.

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The outlook for domestic growth over the coming quarters is more challenging than previously expected, against a background of energy-driven inflation remaining prominent.

Read this chapter in full: The Irish Economy.

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How are households coping with high inflation in 2022? 

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The Russian war in Ukraine continues to take its toll on global economic activity, with high energy and food prices weighing on households’ disposable incomes and on their and business confidence, while supply bottlenecks arising after the pandemic, although slowly fading, are still present.

Read in full: The International Economic Outlook

One of the key assumptions underpinning the forecasts contained in this Bulletin is the future wholesale price of natural gas. The Bank’s forecasts derive technical assumptions for all commodity prices used in the forecasts.

Read in full: The Impact of Gas Prices on the Forecast

Household spending, borrowing and deposit growth have continued over Summer 2022, although future financing developments are uncertain as the economic and financial environment of the pandemic gives way to a period of higher inflation and increased economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Read in full: Spending, Credit, and Deposits: An update on Irish Households and Business Activity

As has been documented for several years, the advanced internationalisation of the Irish Economy since 2014 has caused a significant disconnect between conventional measures of macroeconomic and trade metrics, and the underlying position of the domestic Irish economy.

Read in full: A Direct Forecasting Approach to GNI and CA

Preliminary results from Census 2022 showed that the population of Ireland stood at 5.12 million in April 2022, the first time in 170 years that the population exceeded 5 million.  Annual population and migration estimates published in August indicate that immigration in the year to April 2022 increased to its highest level since 2008 at over 120,000.

Read in full: Population Change and Migration in Ireland - Recent Evidence

The unemployment rate is one of the headline economic indicators used to assess the state of an economy. Since the onset of the pandemic, there have been a number of difficulties in interpreting unemployment data and other labour market indicators given that the measurement methodologies were not designed to reflect distortions introduced by the pandemic, which remain ongoing (Byrne and Keenan, 2020).

Read in full: Labour Market Indicator Dashboard