The Irish economy continued to grow at a strong pace in the first half of 2019, despite rising uncertainty about the economic outlook and a less favourable external economic environment. While the underlying outlook for growth in the economy remains positive, there are significant domestic and external risks and uncertainties which threaten that outlook. At present, the main uncertainty relates to Brexit and the path ahead for the economy in coming years is linked to the future path of the Brexit process. If a disorderly, no deal Brexit can be avoided, it is projected that underlying economic activity will grow at a relatively solid pace in coming years, though with some moderation in growth in prospect. In a no-deal scenario, however, significant disruption and the negative shock to economic activity would adversely affect output and employment and the path ahead for the next few years would be very different.
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