Quarterly Bulletin No.4 2018

Read the Forecast Summary Table | pdf 1690 KB.

Disclaimer: The direct pdf page links do not work for users who are browsing on Safari.

Read the full Comment for Quarterly Bulletin No.4 2018 | pdf 1690 KB.

Léigh tráchtaireacht ar an Timpeallacht Gheilleagrach | pdf 1690 KB.

Disclaimer: The direct pdf page links do not work for users who are browsing on Safari.

The Irish economy grew strongly in the first half of the year underpinned by robust domestic demand and a strong net export performance. Reflecting the strength of the first half outturn, the prospects for growth in 2018 have improved markedly compared to the previous Quarterly Bulletin. Underlying domestic demand is forecast to increase by 5.6 per cent in 2018, moderating to growth of 4.2 per cent in 2019.

This represents an upward revision to the outlook of 1.2 per cent for 2018 and 0.1 per cent for next year, reflecting the increased momentum in the domestic economy. These projections are in line with the forecast from the Central Bank’s new domestic economic activity indicator (Box C, Quarterly Bulletin 3, 2018).

As the economy approaches full employment and spare capacity diminishes, growth in underlying domestic demand is projected to moderate to 3.6 per cent in 2020.

Read this chapter in full: Irish Economy | pdf 1690 KB.

Disclaimer: The direct pdf page links do not work for users who are browsing on Safari.

The ongoing increases in households’ assets and income are boosting net worth and supporting debt sustainability. Household lending and in particular fixed rate mortgage lending continues to gain momentum. Although the number of mortgage accounts in arrears continues to fall, it still represents a source of financial fragility. The pick-up in bank lending to enterprises lags behind the household sector.

The overall picture is somewhat more positive when the financial intermediation and property related sectors are excluded. Finally, Irish banks continue to increase their deposits and the decline in debt securities in recent years shows signs of stabilising.

Read this chapter in full: Financing Developments in the Irish Economy | pdf 1690 KB.

Disclaimer: The direct pdf page links do not work for users who are browsing on Safari.

The global financial crisis brought about significant changes in the size and composition of euro area national central banks’ (NCBs) balance sheets, and led to substantially increased financial risks.

Realised losses can have negative consequences for the independence, policy effectiveness and credibility of central banks and thus, in recent years, NCBs have been paying much closer attention to the measurement of risks on their balance sheet, and to the appropriateness of their financial buffers. This includes increasing the scope of risk measurements, enhancing risk measurement tools, and expanding the actions taken to mitigate risks.

The Central Bank of Ireland (the Central Bank) has similarly developed its risk measurement tools and practices during this period.

Read the signed article in full | pdf 1690 KB.

Disclaimer: The direct pdf page links do not work for users who are browsing on Safari.

Read the full Statistical Appendix | pdf 1690 KB.

Disclaimer: The direct pdf page links do not work for users who are browsing on Safari.