Quarterly Bulletin No.2 2021

Read the full Comment for Quarterly Bulletin No.2 2021

Léigh tráchtaireacht ar an Timpeallacht Gheilleagrach.

Disclaimer: The direct pdf page links do not work for users who are browsing on Safari.

While the outlook for the Irish economy remains highly uncertain and conditional on the epidemiological situation and successful deployment of vaccines, activity is forecast to remain subdued in the first half of the year, and then to rebound starting from the second half of 2021 and into 2022, as restrictions are gradually unwound.

Read this chapter in full: The Irish Economy.

Disclaimer: The direct pdf page links do not work for users who are browsing on Safari.

The outlook for the global economy has improved in recent months, but growth prospects vary widely between countries and sectors. Vaccine rollout is gaining momentum and government stimulus, particularly in the United States, is likely to provide a major boost to economic activity. The growth outlook would markedly improve if production and distribution of vaccines accelerate and are better coordinated. 

Read in full: The International Outlook

This box takes stock of the key developments in the economy a year after the start of the pandemic through the lens of the Central Bank’s Business Cycle Indicator (BCI). 

Read in full:  A Year of the Pandemic: A View from the BCI

In spite of a large fall in world trade as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, Irish exports – already over 120 per cent of GDP in 2019, grew by 6.2 per cent in 2020. This Box highlights that this strong export performance was concentrated in a small number of sectors, and that most Irish exporting firms experienced a decline more in line with what was seen in the world economy. 

Read in full: Why did Irish Exports Grow by 6.2 per cent in 2020 when Global Trade Contracted?

The end of the Brexit transition period on 31 December 2020 ushered in major changes in the arrangements governing trade between the EU and UK. The passage of time and further data will be required before the full economic impact of the new arrangements can be clearly identified. This Box reviews some of the early data on trade developments in the UK and Ireland since the EU-UK agreement took effect. 

Read in full: Trade Flows in the Early Aftermath of Brexit

The Covid-19 pandemic has generated significant challenges to the measurement of consumer price inflation. In addition to the inability to collect all price data needed, there were large changes in household expenditure due to restrictions and changes in consumers’ preferences due to the virus. This Box discusses how these affected the calculation of the HICP and the measurement of inflation.

Read in full: The Impact of Pandemic Spending Patterns on HICP Weights and Inflation in Ireland

This Box provides an update on the key trends relating to the payments, savings and borrowing activities of Irish households and businesses, relying on the latest available and most timely data.

Read in full: Spending, Credit, and Deposits: An Update on Irish Household and Business Activity