Quarterly Bulletin No.1 2021

Read the full Comment for Quarterly Bulletin No.1 2021.

Léigh tráchtaireacht ar an Timpeallacht Gheilleagrach.

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The Covid-19 pandemic continues to have profound societal and economic impacts, both at the global and national level. Reflecting the recent resurgence in cases, both domestically and globally, the near-term outlook has deteriorated and become more uncertain. However, the development and prospect of widespread deployment of vaccines offers hope for a path out of the crisis and, further out, an improved outlook for economies and societies.

Read this chapter in full: The Irish Economy.

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The use of cash (banknotes and coin) in making payments has been in relative decline in Ireland and in other European countries for some time now, as a substitution to card payments by the public has occurred.

Read signed article in full.

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In the second half of 2020, the global economy partly recovered from the lows of the second quarter, and progress with COVID-19 vaccines and the start of their rollout lifted expectations. However, there remain obstacles to a recovery, with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread and many countries reinstating lockdowns, and new COVID-19 strains having the potential to spread more quickly or even make vaccines less effective.

Read in full: The International Outlook

The severe scenario assumes that medical interventions are not sufficient to allow for a full easing of containment measures until 2023. Under this scenario, GDP and modified domestic demand growth are significantly below trend throughout the projection horizon, with consumer demand held back by deteriorating sentiment, and elevated levels of unemployment.

Read in full: Short-term Economic Outlook in a Severe Scenario

The EU and UK concluded a new Trade and Cooperation Agreement on 24 December 2020. This Box summarises the main changes to EU-UK trading arrangements in place since 1 January and reviews the estimated impact on the UK economy and on Ireland in the long run.

Read in full: The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement

This Box explores the impact of the pandemic on households’ earnings and income across different types of households. Because of the income distribution, the categories of workers most affected by the restrictions, and Government support, incomes have in most cases remained relatively stable in spite of large job losses.

Read in full: Employee Earnings and Income Dynamics during COVID-19

Government debt is set to grow significantly over the medium term as borrowing is used to finance the widening gap between spending and revenue. This Box tests the key assumptions underpinning the baseline projections by incorporating a range of shocks to assess how debt dynamics evolve in a less favourable environment.

Read in full:  How Robust are Debt Dynamics over the Medium Term?

This box describes the key trends in credit and deposits for households and businesses.

Read in full: Household and Business Financing Developments in the Irish Economy