Quarterly Bulletin No.1 2020

Read the Forecast Summary Table.

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Read the full Comment for Quarterly Bulletin No.1 2020.

Léigh tráchtaireacht ar an Timpeallacht Gheilleagrach.

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Economic growth remained resilient in 2019 in the face of significant head winds from weak world demand and heightened Brexit related uncertainty. While the outlook for the economy remains positive in 2020 and 2021, some moderation in underlying domestic demand growth is likely. This primarily reflects both external demand prospects and the erosion of spare capacity domestically. Growth in underlying domestic demand is forecast to slow from 4 per cent in 2019 to 3.7 per cent this year and 3 per cent in 2021. Growth in GDP is projected to moderate from 6.1 per cent in 2019 to 4.8 percent this year and 4.2 per cent in 2021.

Read this chapter in full: Irish Economy.

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This chapter presents a summary of the latest financial trends in Ireland. The Financial Statistics Summary Table and accompanying graphs provide key insights for understanding important trends, utilising the latest data for the household sector, small and medium sized enterprises, the financial sector and the public finances. Links to the relevant source data are provided below each chart.

Read the chapter: Overview of Financial developments in the Irish Economy.

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Following the UK’s exit from the EU on 31 January 2020, negotiations have commenced to determine the nature of its economic and trading relationship with the EU in the future.  The latest information indicates a UK preference for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU after Brexit.

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The Central Bank of Ireland participated in the most recent survey of global turnover in foreign exchange (FX) turnover in foreign exchange (FX) and over-the-counter (OTC) single-currency interest rate derivatives that the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) coordinates every three years.

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This box outlines the extent to which Irish export growth has become concentrated in the pharmaceutical and ICT sectors.

Read in full: Sectoral Concentration in Irish Exports

The outlook for global economic activity remains weak, with only a slow and gradual recovery projected. Persistent political uncertainty, trade tensions and subdued business investment continue to weigh on the world economy and increase the risk of stagnation.  

Read in full: The International Economic Outlook

Ireland’s strong labour market continues to support robust growth in the Irish economy. Until the recent pick up in compensation growth however, wage inflation has been conspicuously absent. This recent increase in earnings has not been equally spread across all income deciles or sectors over time as shown from the CSO data release on Earnings Analysis using Administrative Data Sources (EADDS).

Read in full: Sectoral Wage Growth in Ireland

Corporation tax (CT) receipts reached a record high of €10.9 billion in 2019, once again significantly surpassing budgetary expectations. Against this backdrop this Box provides an update on the latest developments in CT, building on other recent analysis by the Central Bank. 

Read in full:  Developments in Corporation Tax – An Update

Credit developments remain largely modest while deposits from both households and non-financial corporations (NFCs) are picking up strongly.  The growth in credit to the NFCs has slowed in the later part of 2019, accompanied by very strong growth in deposits from non-financial companies. This is showing some potential precautionary behaviour of NFCs but business sentiment indicators suggest a modest rebound in December may result in a change in the coming months.

Read in full: Financing Developments in the Irish Economy